A pattern of unusual trading activity has emerged during the second term of Donald Trump, with investors placing large bets shortly before major announcements, sparking concerns about possible insider trading.
An analysis by BBC found “a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.”
In multiple cases, these well-timed trades resulted in significant profits as markets reacted sharply following the announcements.
One of the most notable examples occurred on March 9, 2026, during the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Oil trading volumes surged 47 minutes before Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much.” Once the interview aired, oil prices dropped by around 25%, according to the report.
“The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices,” the report noted.
A similar trend was observed on March 23, when Trump posted on his Truth platform about “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Iran and a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” to hostilities.
Oil markets reacted immediately with a sharp decline, but “an unusually high number of bets” had already been placed roughly 14 minutes before the post, in what one analyst described as “abnormal, for sure.”
The report also highlighted comparable activity in equity markets. In April 2025, traders began placing large bets on a stock market rebound shortly before Trump announced a 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs.
“The benchmark S&P 500 index jumped by 9.5% – one of its largest single-day gains since the Second World War,” it said, adding that some traders reportedly made bets exceeding $2 million and earned nearly $20 million in profits.
The BBC identified several other instances including developments involving Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro that also raised suspicions of advance knowledge influencing trades.
Analysts remain divided on the issue. Some argue the trading patterns show the “hallmarks of illegal insider trading,” while others believe certain market participants may simply be anticipating Trump’s actions more effectively.
Legal experts caution that proving insider trading in such cases is complex, and US regulators have not officially confirmed any wrongdoing.
