Pakistan is aiming to achieve 4% economic growth in FY27, up from an estimated 3.7% in FY26, as policymakers seek to sustain economic momentum while navigating the impact of higher crude oil prices linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and continuing under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
The growth outlook is supported by expected improvements across the agriculture, industrial, and services sectors, according to projections released by Topline Research on Monday.
The brokerage firm expects agriculture to play a leading role in driving economic expansion, with sector growth projected to rise to 3.8% in FY27 from 2.9% in FY26.
This improvement is largely attributed to a recovery in major crops, where growth is forecast at 3.6%, compared with only 0.6% in the current fiscal year. Livestock, the largest component of the agriculture sector, is also expected to maintain stable performance, with growth estimated at 3.9%, slightly higher than 3.8% in FY26.
The industrial sector is projected to expand by 4% in FY27, up from an estimated 3.5% in FY26. However, performance across industries is expected to vary. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which is anticipated to grow by 6.1% in FY26, is forecast to moderate to 4.5% in FY27. Construction activity is also expected to slow, with growth projected at 2.2%, down from 5.7%.
The services sector is forecast to record growth of 4.2% in FY27, compared with 4.1% in FY26.
Within the services sector, wholesale and retail trade is expected to improve, with growth projected at 4.2%, up from 3.7%. The information and communication segment is likely to remain among the economy’s strongest-performing sectors, with growth forecast to increase to 7.7% in FY27 from 7.5% in FY26.
