ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s national poverty rate has climbed to 28.8% in 2024-25, reflecting a sharp increase of 6.9 percentage points over the past six years, according to official estimates expected to be released by the government today.
Official data shows that poverty stood at 21.9% in 2018-19. However, the latest estimates based on the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25 indicate a significant reversal in trend, with poverty rising to 28.8%. The increase has been observed across provinces, particularly in Punjab and Sindh.
Top official sources attributed the surge in poverty to multiple factors, including three IMF stabilisation programmes, the economic fallout of Covid-19, commodity price super-cycles, soaring inflation, slower GDP growth, two devastating floods, and the abandonment of wheat support prices. Federal Minister for Planning and Development, Ahsan Iqbal, is expected to formally announce the official poverty figures for 2024-25.
Chairman of the Poverty Estimation Committee, Dr G M Arif, confirmed that the committee has submitted its report and recommendations to the government. However, he declined to comment on the exact poverty rate ahead of the official release. Dr Arif previously served as Joint Director at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
Sources said poverty has increased in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while Balochistan has witnessed a slight rise. Although poverty had shown a declining trend in previous years, the 2024-25 estimates indicate a sharp reversal.
According to a notification issued by the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, a 17-member high-powered Poverty Estimation Committee was constituted following the completion of HIES 2024-25 to determine national poverty and inequality figures.
The government calculates poverty using the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) methodology, adjusting the poverty line through CPI-based inflation. Historically, the percentage of people living below the poverty line had declined significantly from 50.4% in 2005-06 to 21.9% in 2018-19. In 2018-19, the poverty headcount stood at 11% in urban areas and 28.2% in rural areas.
When Pakistan shifted to the CBN-based approach, it consulted a World Bank expert on poverty measurement. Officials noted that unlike Pakistan, Vietnam experienced simultaneous growth and rising poverty, which led to a re-adjustment of its poverty line.
The government has also conducted the Labour Force Survey, which is expected to be released soon, offering further insights into employment and economic conditions across the country.
